On Friday it was exactly a year since the British electorate shocked the world by voting for Brexit. What happened since reminds one of how Microsoft’s Bill Gates described the dawning of the Internet: we over-estimated the short-term impact, but under-estimated the long-term revolution.
Since Brexit, the pound has fallen 13% against its major crosses. That pushed up UK inflation to around 3%, exceeding Bank of England’s maximum target of 2%. On the other hand, the UK stock market has done well, the FTSE gaining 23% in the year.
But with US and Continental European stocks up 38%; Japan 41% higher; and Emerging Market indices gaining 45% it may well have been an opportunity lost. Against those stellar performances, the JSE All Share Index actually lost 1%. And were it not for the uplifting impact of its biggest constituent Naspers (up 25%) the contrast would be even greater. Ouch.
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